Is Pedro Pagés a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Pedro Pagés's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .268 with 4.5% barrels — no power path.

198 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Pedro Pagés

STL·C

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.268 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64

ROSHR 0AVG .196R 3RBI 3SB 1

Pagés is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .268, which is .047 below the league average of .315, and he has 198 plate appearances, past the 160 where that number becomes reliable. There is no bad-luck story to soften it: that is his skill level, and it has been stepping down across the sample rather than up. The contact confirms it. He averages 86.7 mph off the bat, more than two mph below league, with a 4.5% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0%, both on enough batted balls to trust. The plate discipline is worse, not better — a 26.3% strikeout rate, a 13.9% swinging-strike rate, and a 35.7% chase rate, all above league. Nothing here is being masked by luck. Sell. A 0 HR / 3 R / 3 RBI /.196 AVG line is deep-league waiver filler — sell him and stream the catcher slot instead.

VS His Norm

Barrel %4.5%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.268 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —

133 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %37.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —

133 / 50 BBE

Barrel %4.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −1.9% ▼

133 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.268

lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —

198 / 160 PA

wOBA.257

lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.

198 / 200 PA

Strikeout %26.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —

198 / 60 PA

Walk %5.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —

198 / 120 PA

BABIP.272

lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm −.021 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.

133 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —

198 / 50 PA

Chase %35.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —

198 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 4.5%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.5% (signal) lifted to career ~6.4% → projected 5.6%.

BABIP 0.272→0.253 regressednoise.196 AVG — BABIP 0.272 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.250 (xBA 0.217) → 0.253.

on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~37 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~37 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (2 in 36 G) over ~37 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons