Is Pedro Pagés a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Pedro Pagés's rest-of-season outlook?

0.273 xwOBA with a 4.3% barrel rate — empty power.

211 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Pedro Pagés

STL·C

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.273 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Pagés is a sell — the bat is below league and trending down

His expected wOBA is .273, .042 below the league average of .315, and at 211 plate appearances he is past the 160 it takes for that number to become reliable. His actual wOBA is .264, nearly identical, so there is no suppressed BABIP dragging the line down — nothing to buy low on. The contact quality backs up the line rather than contradicting it: 86.7 mph average exit velocity against a league average of 89.0, and a 4.3% barrel rate against 8.0%. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which means the number is not bouncing back toward the league. He pairs a 26.5% strikeout rate with a 6.6% walk rate, so even the on-base path is narrow. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. A .000 AVG with 0 HR and 0 RBI is a waiver-level drag — fade and stream the catcher spot instead.

VS His Norm

Barrel %4.3%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.273 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —

139 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %37.7%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —

139 / 50 BBE

Barrel %4.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −2.1% ▼

139 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.273

lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —

211 / 160 PA

wOBA.264

lg avg .315 ▼−.051vs his norm —

211 / 200 PA

Strikeout %26.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —

211 / 60 PA

Walk %6.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

211 / 120 PA

BABIP.282

lg avg .295 ▼−.013vs his norm −.011 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.

139 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —

211 / 50 PA

Chase %34.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —

211 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 4.3%→5.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.3% (signal) lifted to career ~6.4% → projected 5.5%.

BABIP 0.282→0.256 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.282 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.251 (xBA 0.218) → 0.256.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 36 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons