Is Pedro Pagés a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Pedro Pagés's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .270, hardest contact barely league avg.

160 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Pedro Pagés

STL·C

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64

ROSHR 3AVG .204R 14RBI 11SB 3

Pagés is a sell — skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected wOBA is .270, which is .045 below the league average of .315, and his sample of 160 plate appearances is past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA tracks close to it, so there is no bad-luck story pulling the line down. His contact quality is also below league: average exit velocity 87.1 mph, hard-hit rate 39.1%, and barrel rate 5.4% are all under league norms. He strikes out 25.6% of the time, above the league average of 22%, and his walk rate is 3.8%, well below the 8.5% average. The xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, meaning the skill is eroding, not stabilizing. There is no mirage to sell and no bounce-back coming. The numbers are what they are. Sell. 3 HR / 14 R / 11 RBI / 3 SB / .204 AVG — a drop at catcher; these numbers and the skill erosion are a stream-only tag.

VS His Norm

Barrel %5.4%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —

111 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %39.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —

111 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

111 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.270

lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —

160 / 160 PA

wOBA.257

lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.

160 / 200 PA

Strikeout %25.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —

160 / 60 PA

Walk %3.8%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —

160 / 120 PA

BABIP.262

lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm −.032 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.

111 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —

160 / 50 PA

Chase %38.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.3%vs his norm —

160 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.4%→6.0%signal3 HR — Barrel% 5.4% (signal) lifted to career ~6.4% → projected 6.0%.

BABIP 0.262→0.257 regressednoise.204 AVG — BABIP 0.262 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.256 (xBA 0.222) → 0.257.

on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~163 projected PA.

slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~163 projected PA.

run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 36 G) over ~163 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons