week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brennan Bernardino
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.22); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.72WHIP 1.25W 1–3SV 0
Bernardino is a hold — league average, no noise propping it up.
ROS projects K 18 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.1%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.22)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.6%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
168 / 200 TBF
xERA4.22
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
168 / 200 TBF
ERA2.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
39.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
168 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −2.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.5% norm — expect it to rise.
168 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
168 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
168 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.5 mphvs his norm —
623 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.1%→19.5%signal19 K — K% 16.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 19.5% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 4.22noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.22 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.