MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brennan Bernardino
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Brennan Bernardino

COL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.89); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 4ERA 3.82WHIP 1.30W 0–1SV 0

Bernardino is a hold — contact suppression is quietly above average.

His expected ERA is 3.89, which is roughly a quarter-run better than the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact profile backs it up: his expected wOBA allowed is .305, a tick under league, and he is holding hitters to a 30.6% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%. That gap is the reason his skill number sits where it does. His strikeout rate of 17.1% is below league and his fastball sits at 90.6 mph, six mph slower than average, so he is not missing bats — he is suppressing quality instead. His expected ERA has stepped down across the sample, so the direction is right. Nothing is unstable here and nothing is elite. Hold. 4 K and a 1.30 WHIP deep-league only — a hold, not a streamer worth chasing.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.1%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.3%—−3.2% ▼vs his ~9.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.89)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm —
180 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
5.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
180 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
believable since Aug 9.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
3.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
ERA2.98
2.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
57.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.1%
norm17.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
240 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −3.2% ▼
240 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.279
.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
180 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
240 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
25.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
240 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
910 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.1%→19.5%signal4 K — K% 17.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 19.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.82 ERA — xERA 3.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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