MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luis Castillo
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Luis Castillo

CWS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.91 +0.81 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.79
ROSK 13ERA 4.63WHIP 1.36W 0–1SV 0

Castillo is a sell — the stable skill sits below league.

His expected ERA is 4.91, which is .81 above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced 567 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. This is not a case of an ERA dragged around by bad luck; the contact he allows backs the number up. Opposing hitters are barreling him at 9.5% against a league average of 8.0% and making hard contact at 42.0% against 40.0%, both on 410 batted balls. His expected wOBA allowed is .339, .024 above league. He strikes out only 19.2% of batters while the league sits at 22.0%. He still throws 95.3 mph and gets chases at 31.8%, but the results those pitches produce are not good enough. The xERA has been stepping up, not settling down. Sell. 13 K and a 4.63 ERA rest of season make him a drop — deep-league streaming-only fringe arm, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.2%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~25.5% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.91 +0.81 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
42.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
410 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
410 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
567 / 200 TBF
xERA4.91
4.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —
567 / 200 TBF
ERA5.57
5.57*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.47vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
126 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.2%
norm19.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
567 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
567 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
.314*
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
410 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
567 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
31.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
567 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
95.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
2274 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.2%→20.8%signal13 K — K% 19.2% (signal) lifted to career ~25.5% → projected 20.8% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.91signal4.63 ERA — xERA 4.91 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 4.63 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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