MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luis Castillo
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Luis Castillo

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 5.02 is +0.92 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.70WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0

Castillo is a hold — his ERA overstates the damage, but the skill isn't a buy

His expected ERA is 5.02, roughly .9 of a run above the league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That is the level his run prevention regresses to, and it is below average. His actual ERA is uglier than that because his BABIP-against is .316, above the .295 league mark, and that gap is luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play and he has 428. So the line looks worse than he is. The trouble is what is underneath: his expected wOBA allowed is .341, .026 above league, his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed both sit slightly above league, and his strikeout rate is under league at 18.9%. His xERA has been climbing across the sample, which points the wrong way. The panic is overstated; the buy case isn't there. Hold. 0 K / 4.70 ERA / 1.38 WHIP isn't worth a roster spot — this is a drop-tier asset, waiver-wire streaming-only until something changes.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.9%—−6.6% ▼vs his ~25.5% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 5.02 is +0.92 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%
41.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
428 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
428 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.341
.341*
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
592 / 200 TBF
xERA5.02
5.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.92vs his norm —
592 / 200 TBF
ERA5.86
5.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.76vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
130.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
norm18.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −6.6% ▼
592 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
592 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
428 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
592 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
31.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
592 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
2367 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.9%→20.6%signal0 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to career ~25.5% → projected 20.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.02signal4.70 ERA — xERA 5.02 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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