MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luis Castillo
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Luis Castillo

SEA·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 4.51 +0.41 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.67
ROSK 59ERA 4.37WHIP 1.33W 1–3SV 0

Castillo is a sell — his skill is below league and stable.

His xERA is 4.51, which is 0.41 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA is not being dragged down by bad luck — his BABIP-against is not below league average, so the ERA is not hiding his true level. His strikeout rate is 20.8%, slightly below the league average of 22.0%, and his chase rate is elevated at 33.0% versus 28.5%, suggesting batters are making more contact outside the zone. His hard-hit rate allowed is 43.6% against 40.0% league, and his barrel rate allowed is 9.5% versus 8.0%, both stable and above league. The fastball velocity is still good at 95.3 mph, but the results have not followed. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not down. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. 59 K and 4.37 ERA with fading skills do not support a hold — sell the name and treat this as a drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.8%—−4.7% ▼vs his ~25.5% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.51 +0.41 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.6%
43.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
275 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
275 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
4.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
ERA4.93
4.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
87.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
norm20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −4.7% ▼
390 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
390 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
275 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
95.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
1576 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→22.4%signal59 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~25.5% → projected 22.4% over ~54 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51signal4.37 ERA — xERA 4.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop59 K ROS, 4.37 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups