week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Nate Pearson
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 27, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.38); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0
Nate Pearson is a hold — league average, nothing unstable.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.09 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.8%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~23.1% career norm
- Walk %12.7%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~10.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
125 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
125 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
197 / 200 TBF
xERA4.38
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
197 / 200 TBF
ERA4.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
45.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
197 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
197 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
197 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
197 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
763 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→21.9%signal0 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~23.1% → projected 21.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.38noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.38 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 12.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.57 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.