week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Nate Pearson
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.42); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 10ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 2–8
Pearson is a hold — league-average skills with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 10 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.0%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~23.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.42)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.1%vs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
84 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
84 / 200 TBF
ERA3.60
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
20 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
84 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +3.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.8% norm — expect it to fall.
84 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
84 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
84 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.7 mphvs his norm —
346 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→21.9%signal10 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~23.1% → projected 21.9% over ~16 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 14.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.68 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)2-8 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.