MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tim Hill
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tim Hill

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.51 +0.41 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 10% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.med 0.67
ROSK 0ERA 4.23WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Hill is a sell — the strikeout rate caps everything

His xERA is 4.51, four-tenths of a run above league average, and the sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing unstable is lifting the surface. The bigger issue is his strikeout rate: 10.4%, well below the league's 22%, and that gap is wide even against his own 16.4% career baseline. He is missing fewer bats than he ever has. The swinging-strike rate of 6.5% backs it up — against 11% league average — and the velocity sits at 89.2 mph. His walk rate is clean at 5.4%, and his barrel rate allowed is actually low, so there is a version of this where contact quality saves him. It won't be enough. A pitcher who strikes out one in ten can't miss bats when it matters, and the expected numbers show him getting slightly worse. Sell. 0 K / 4.23 ERA / 1.31 WHIP is waiver-wire filler; fade him to streaming-only before the bottom falls out.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %10.4%—−6.0% ▼vs his ~16.4% career norm
  • Walk %5.4%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.51 +0.41 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 10% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.4%
43.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
196 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
196 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
believable since Aug 20.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
241 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
4.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —
241 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
4.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
58.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.6%vs his norm −6.0% ▼
241 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.4%
norm5.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
241 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
.230*
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
196 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
241 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
241 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−4.8 mphvs his norm —
816 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 10.4%→13.1%signal0 K — K% 10.4% (signal) lifted to career ~16.4% → projected 13.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 5.4% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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