week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Tim Hill
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.61); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 12ERA 3.72WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Hill is a hold — league-average skill with no luck story.
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 12 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %11.5%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~16.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.61)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 200 TBF
xERA4.61
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.51vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
36 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.5%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
148 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm −2.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.2% norm — expect it to rise.
148 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo89.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−4.7 mphvs his norm —
481 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.5%→14.3%signal12 K — K% 11.5% (signal) lifted to career ~16.4% → projected 14.3% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 4.61noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.61 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 4.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.