week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Tim Hill
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Hill is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 4.03, but the number keeping it down is his BABIP-against: .250, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 76. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.56 — over half a run higher, pointing directly at regression. He strikes out just 11.6% of batters, less than half the league average, so there is no swing-and-miss safety net when the BABIP normalizes. His barrel rate allowed is solid, but the strikeout rate is a structural limit. The surface is flattering the pitcher right now. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.76
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.56 is 0.53 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 TBF
xERA4.56
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07too early to trust
NOISE22.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL95 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%too early to trust
NOISE95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045too early to trust
NOISE76 / 800 BIP