MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tim Hill
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tim Hill

NYY·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.32); strikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 3ERA 4.10WHIP 1.32W 0–1SV 0

Hill is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable either way.

His expected ERA is 4.32, close to the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .320 against a league average of .315, so there is no hidden skill gap and no luck story to sell. The catch is his strikeout rate: 10.9%, well below the league average of 22% and below his own career baseline of 16.4%. He has never missed bats, and this year he is getting fewer than ever. The strikeout rate is the floor on his ceiling, but he does not walk many either — 5.5% against a league average of 8% — so the profile is stable in both directions. Nothing here is unstable enough to buy or sell. Hold. 3 K and 0 SV the rest of the way make him a drop in most formats — deep-league holds only.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %10.9%—−5.5% ▼vs his ~16.4% career norm
  • Walk %5.5%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.32)
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.8%
43.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
178 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
178 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
believable since Aug 20.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
220 / 200 TBF
xERA4.32
4.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.22vs his norm —
220 / 200 TBF
ERA4.31
4.31*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.21vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
54.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %10.9%
norm10.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.1%vs his norm −5.5% ▼
220 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
220 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.228
.228*
lg avg .295 ▼−.067vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
178 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
220 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
220 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−4.8 mphvs his norm —
746 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 10.9%→13.5%signal3 K — K% 10.9% (signal) lifted to career ~16.4% → projected 13.5% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.32signal4.10 ERA — xERA 4.32 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.10 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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