Rest of Season Projection
SamCategoryTim
38K ←22
3.62ERA ←3.72
1.25WHIP →1.24
1–2W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
SamCategoryTim
29K ←11
2.22ERA ←4.03
1.09WHIP ←1.21
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Sam Bachman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.217 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.71 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
Tim Hill
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.56)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Sam Bachman: 38 K / 3.62 ERA. Tim Hill: 22 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).