MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sam Bachman
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Sam Bachman

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.03); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.91WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 0

Bachman is a hold — league-average skill, nothing exaggerating either side.

His expected ERA is 4.03, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 217 batters is past the point where that number becomes reliable. That stability holds up across his profile: his expected wOBA allowed of .309 sits just under the league's .315, and his strikeout rate of 22.6% is dead on league average. The walk rate is the one part of the profile that will make him frustrating: 13.4%, more than five points above league, and it is stable at 217 batters faced. He makes up for some of that with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate, well above league, and his expected ERA has been stepping down as the sample grew. No luck stat is pulling the line in either direction—this is the level he's at. Hold. 0 K / 3.91 ERA / 1.44 WHIP at a drop-tier cost is waiver-wire filler; hold what you have, but this is no asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.6%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~21.4% career norm
  • Walk %13.4%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.03)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
believable since Sep 21.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
217 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —
217 / 200 TBF
ERA4.81
4.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.71vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
48.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.6%
norm22.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
217 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.4%
norm13.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
217 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
.266*
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
217 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
217 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.4 mph
98.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.4 mphvs his norm —
830 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.6%→22.0%signal0 K — K% 22.6% (signal) tempered to career ~21.4% → projected 22.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03signal3.91 ERA — xERA 4.03 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 13.4% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.55 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.91 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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