week 19
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
José Fermin
data as of August 3, 2026·week 19
new call as of August 3, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.43 is 1.70 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 17ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Fermin is a sell-high — his ERA is luck-driven
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.9%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~25.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.43 is 1.70 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
92 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
92 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
156 / 200 TBF
xERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
156 / 200 TBF
ERA2.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
36.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
156 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm −4.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~16.2% norm — expect it to rise.
156 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
645 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.9%→25.8%signal17 K — K% 26.9% (signal) tempered to career ~25.0% → projected 25.8% over ~14 remaining…
xERA 4.43noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.43 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.