week 13
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
José Fermin
data as of June 19, 2026·week 13
new call as of June 19, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.92); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 37ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–6SV 0
Fermin is a hold — league-average stuff, nothing moves the needle.
ROS projects K 18 YTD → 37 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.5%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed54.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+14.3%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.372
lg avg .315 ▲+.057vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 TBF
xERA5.92
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.82vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 TBF
ERA4.76
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
80 / 70 TBF
Walk %17.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm +1.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~16.2% norm — expect it to fall.
80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
334 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→24.3%signal37 K — K% 22.5% (signal) lifted to career ~25.0% → projected 24.3% over ~29 remaining IP.
xERA 5.92noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.92 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 17.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 18% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.78 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.