543 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Luis García Jr.
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
García is a buy — above-average production with nothing to give back
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %12.1%—+4.5% ▲vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
421 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
421 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +4.5% ▲
421 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.341
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
543 / 160 PA
wOBA.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
543 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
543 / 60 PA
Walk %4.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
543 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm +.001 ▲BABIP is above his ~.288 norm — expect it to fall.
421 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
543 / 50 PA
Chase %38.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
543 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.1%→10.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.1% (signal) tempered to career ~7.6% → projected 10.7%.
BABIP 0.289→0.296 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.276) → 0.296.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 55 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.