Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryLuis
8HR →10
52R ←36
45RBI →52
7SB ←3
.212AVG →.281
Current Season
ChristianCategoryLuis
4HR →5
21R21
18RBI →30
3SB ←2
.275AVG ←.264
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Luis García Jr.
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Luis García Jr.: 10 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).