week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Anthony Molina
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.81 is 1.02 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Molina is a sell-high — the ERA is riding a .208 BABIP
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.3%—+5.2% ▲vs his ~15.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 is 1.02 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 200 TBF
ERA2.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.31vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +5.2% ▲
74 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −2.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.7% norm — expect it to rise.
74 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.208
lg avg .295 ▼−.087vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
74 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
74 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
302 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.3%→16.5%signal0 K — K% 20.3% (signal) tempered to career ~15.1% → projected 16.5% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.81 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 4.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.