week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Jake Bird
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
flipped from HOLD on September 30, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.30 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0
Jake Bird is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not his arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.8%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~21.4% career norm
- Walk %7.6%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~9.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.30 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
113 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
113 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
ERA5.35
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.25vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
172 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
172 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
678 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→22.5%signal0 K — K% 23.8% (signal) tempered to career ~21.4% → projected 22.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.30 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.