week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
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Jake Bird
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Bird is a buy-low — the ERA is pure BABIP noise.
His ERA is 5.00, but the underlying skill metrics tell a different story. The inflation is coming from a BABIP-against of .347, 52 points above league average, and that number is not reliable yet — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 51. Strip out that luck component and his expected ERA is 3.78, a run and a quarter lower. His contact-suppression numbers support the improvement: a 37.3% hard-hit rate allowed is below league average and the sample is past the stabilization point. He also strikes out 25.3% of batters, above the 22% league average, and that sample is reliable too. This is an early-season signal with limited data, but the noise is clearly in the ERA, not the skill. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.347 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL51 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%too early to trust
NOISE51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007too early to trust
NOISE79 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32too early to trust
NOISE79 / 200 TBF
ERA5.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.90too early to trust
NOISE18 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL79 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%too early to trust
NOISE79 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.347
lg avg .295 ▲+.052too early to trust
NOISE51 / 800 BIP