week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jake Bird
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.67); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Bird is a hold — league average, no signal in either direction.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 21 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.7%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~21.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.67)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
132 / 200 TBF
xERA4.67
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
132 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
132 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −2.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.5% norm — expect it to rise.
132 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
510 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→21.9%signal21 K — K% 22.7% (signal) tempered to career ~21.4% → projected 21.9% over ~19 remaining…
xERA 4.67noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.67 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.