MLB Daily DeltaWeek 15 · July 6, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Jake Bird
Jake Bird
NYY · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (K); Jake Bird wins 1 (W); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.5
Jake Bird
94.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.2%
Jake Bird
11.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
22.9%
Jake Bird
24.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
29.8%
Jake Bird
24.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
34.0%
Jake Bird
37.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
2.1%
Jake Bird
9.1%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.286
Jake Bird
.336
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
27
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Jake Bird
27
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.00
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.62
now 0.60
1.24
Jake Bird
.9001.62
now 1.33
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4045.20
now 6
34
Jake Bird
4045.20
now 20
24
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0002.80
now 0
00
Jake Bird
.0002.80
now 1
12

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeJake Bird — hold.conf 0.50
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