week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Caleb Ferguson
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 30ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Ferguson is a hold — league-average profile with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 6 YTD → 30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.3%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~25.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.278
lg avg .315 ▼−.037vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 200 TBF
xERA3.16
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.94vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 200 TBF
ERA2.41
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.69vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
80 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −0.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.0% norm — expect it to rise.
80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
55 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
313 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→24.6%signal30 K — K% 21.3% (signal) lifted to career ~25.9% → projected 24.6% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.16noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 8.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.