week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Caleb Thielbar
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.55); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 1–5
Thielbar is a hold — league-average ERA, mixed contact quality.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.7%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.55)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
71 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
71 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 200 TBF
xERA4.55
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 200 TBF
ERA4.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
118 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +2.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.9% norm — expect it to fall.
118 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
71 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
118 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.2%vs his norm —
118 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
494 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.7%→27.4%signal20 K — K% 29.7% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 27.4% over ~18 remaining…
xERA 4.55noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.55 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-5 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.