MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Caleb Thielbar
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Caleb Thielbar

CHC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.60 +0.50 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.70
ROSK 0ERA 4.29WHIP 1.23W 0–0SV 0–0

Thielbar is a sell — the strikeouts hide real damage.

His expected ERA is 4.60, half a run above the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing unfair is propping up the line: his walk rate is 8.1%, right at league average, so there is no control problem to blame and no bad luck to wait out. What he does well is miss bats — a 28.4% strikeout rate, a 15.0% swinging-strike rate, and a 35.8% chase rate all clear league comfortably. But when hitters do make contact, they do damage. He allows barrels on 10.5% of batted balls against a league average of 8.0%, and both his expected wOBA allowed (.328) and his expected ERA keep climbing across the sample. The swing-and-miss is real; it just is not keeping runs off the board. Sell. 0 K / 4.29 ERA / 1.23 WHIP — that's a deep-league drag, not an asset; fade the strikeouts before the ratios bite.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.4%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
  • Walk %8.1%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.60 +0.50 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
believable since Jun 1838.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
xERA4.60
4.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
ERA4.86
4.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.76vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.4%
norm28.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
211 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
211 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.300
.300*
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
133 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.8%
35.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
93.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
848 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.4%→27.3%signal0 K — K% 28.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 27.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.60signal4.29 ERA — xERA 4.60 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep4.29 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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