week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Caleb Thielbar
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.56); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0–1
Thielbar is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 5 ROS, WHIP 1.34 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.2%—+3.1% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
- Walk %8.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.56)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
192 / 200 TBF
xERA4.56
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
192 / 200 TBF
ERA5.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm +3.1% ▲
192 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
192 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.302
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
192 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
192 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
781 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.2%→27.6%signal5 K — K% 29.2% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 27.6% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.56noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.56 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.