MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of José Tena
288 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

José Tena

WSH·DH
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Tena is a sell — the expected numbers are below league and falling.

His expected wOBA is .291, .024 below the league average of .315, and he has 288 plate appearances — past the point where that number is reliable. There is no bad-luck story pulling it down: his actual wOBA of .299 tracks right with it, so the line is what it is. The contact quality is actually fine, with a 90.6 mph average exit velocity and a 46.4% hard-hit rate, both above league, but he strikes out 31.3% of the time and swings through 16.3% of pitches, far above league. That caps the floor. The expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample while his strikeout rate steps up. The approach is getting worse, not better. Sell. The ROS line reads 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG — a drop, waiver-wire fringe, not a bounce-back asset.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.3%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.4%
46.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.291
believable since Jun 28.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —
288 / 160 PA
wOBA.299
.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
288 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
288 / 60 PA
Walk %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
288 / 120 PA
BABIP.311
norm.311*
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm −.026 ▼BABIP is below his ~.337 norm — expect it to rise.
168 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
288 / 50 PA
Chase %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
288 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.3%→7.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.3% (signal) tempered to career ~6.8% → projected 7.5%.
BABIP 0.311→0.300 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.311 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.296 (xBA 0.221) → 0.300.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 46 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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