MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Antonio Senzatela
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Antonio Senzatela

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.89); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 5ERA 3.82WHIP 1.37W 1–1SV 0–1

Senzatela is a hold — the skill sits right at league average.

His expected ERA is 3.89, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That is the whole story here — the skill metric and the surface agree, so there is nothing unstable to bet on or against. His expected wOBA allowed is .305, ten points better than league average. He does not miss many bats, striking out 19.2% of batters against a league rate of 22%, but he offsets that with a walk rate that is essentially league average. His expected ERA has moved down as the sample has grown, which suggests the early damage was not the real level. Nothing here gives a reason to buy or to sell. Hold. 5 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.37 WHIP is deep-league hold only, not a streamer — status quo keeps the asset without chasing it.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.2%+4.4%vs his ~14.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%+1.4%vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.89)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
40.0%*
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
205 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.7%vs his norm —
205 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
believable since Jul 13.305*
lg avg .315 −.010vs his norm —
287 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
3.89*
lg avg 4.10 −0.21vs his norm —
287 / 200 TBF
ERA4.12
4.12*
lg avg 4.10 +0.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
67.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.2%
norm19.2%*
lg avg 22.0% −2.8%vs his norm +4.4%
287 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% +0.7%vs his norm +1.4%
287 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.312
.312*
lg avg .295 +.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
205 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +0.6%vs his norm —
287 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
30.0%*
lg avg 28.5% +1.5%vs his norm —
287 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +3.3 mphvs his norm —
1070 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.2%→17.4%signal5 K — K% 19.2% (signal) tempered to career ~14.8% → projected 17.4% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.82 ERA — xERA 3.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.82 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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