MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Antonio Senzatela
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Antonio Senzatela

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.06); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.93WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0–0

Senzatela is a hold — league average, with no luck pulling either way

His expected ERA is 4.06, essentially matching the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 311 batters — well past the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .310, again right at the .315 league mark. Nothing in the profile is being propped up or dragged down by an unstable stat: his hard-hit rate allowed is 40.4% against a 40.0% league average, and his barrel rate allowed is actually a touch better than league at 6.3%. The one thing worth watching is that his expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the recent run of contact suppression is the better read. That is a mild lean, not a reason to chase him. He is what the numbers say he is. Hold. A 0-0 W / 0-0 SV line confirms waiver-level, streaming-only usage; hold the status quo and leave him off your roster.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.3%—+4.5% ▲vs his ~14.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.4%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.06)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
40.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
223 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
223 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
believable since Jul 13.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
311 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
4.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —
311 / 200 TBF
ERA4.05
4.05*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.05vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.3%
norm19.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm +4.5% ▲
311 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
norm8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
311 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
.310*
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
223 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
311 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
30.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
311 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
1165 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.3%→17.6%signal0 K — K% 19.3% (signal) tempered to career ~14.8% → projected 17.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06signal3.93 ERA — xERA 4.06 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop3 SV, 3.93 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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