week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Orlando Ribalta
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.90); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–5
Ribalta is a hold — limited data, nothing to act on yet.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 15 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.2%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~19.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.90)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 200 TBF
xERA3.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 200 TBF
ERA3.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
114 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −2.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.4% norm — expect it to rise.
114 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
114 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
114 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
499 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.2%→19.8%signal15 K — K% 20.2% (signal) tempered to career ~19.5% → projected 19.8% over ~20 remaining…
xERA 3.90noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.90 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-5 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.