MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Wenceel Pérez
175 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Wenceel Pérez

DET·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xwOBA 0.272 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSHR 3AVG .198R 18RBI 12SB 3

Pérez is a sell — below-league skill with no luck alibi.

His expected wOBA is .272, .043 below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks right with it, so there is no bad-luck story hiding the line. His contact quality is also below league: 87.2 mph exit velocity and 33.3% hard-hit rate, both well under the averages of 89.0 mph and 40.0%. The only bright spot is a low strikeout rate of 16.6% and a slightly elevated walk rate, but those are not enough to lift his overall production. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, so there is no upward trajectory to bet on. The skill is simply below league, and the line shows it. Sell. 3 HR, .198 AVG, and a shallow skill set make Pérez a drop; even deep-league owners should stream only.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.272 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.2 mph
87.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —
175 / 160 PA
wOBA.262
.262*
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.6%
16.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
175 / 60 PA
Walk %8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
175 / 120 PA
BABIP.176
norm.176*
lg avg .295 ▼−.119vs his norm −.114 ▼BABIP is below his ~.290 norm — expect it to rise.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
175 / 50 PA
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
175 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→6.9%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) tempered to career ~6.4% → projected 6.9%.
BABIP 0.176→0.221 regressednoise.198 AVG — BABIP 0.176 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.203) → 0.221.
on-base + lineup18 R — his run rate over ~168 projected PA.
slugging + lineup12 RBI — his RBI rate over ~168 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 45 G) over ~168 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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