MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Wenceel Pérez
175 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Wenceel Pérez

DET·RF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xwOBA 0.272 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSHR 0AVG .193R 4RBI 3SB 1

Pérez is a sell — below-league skill and no luck to blame

His expected wOBA is .272, .043 below the league average of .315, and he has 175 plate appearances — past the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. There is no bad-luck story underneath it. His average exit velocity is 87.2 mph, two mph below league, and his hard-hit rate is 33.3% against a 40% league mark, both on 132 batted balls, well past the point where contact quality can be trusted. He does make plenty of contact — a 16.6% strikeout rate and an 8.7% swinging-strike rate, both better than league — but the contact is not doing damage, and his expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample. He is what the numbers say. Sell. 0 HR / 4 R / 3 RBI / 1 SB / .193 AVG is a drag — sell and cut him from standard rosters, deep-league streamer at best.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.272 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.2 mph
87.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —
175 / 160 PA
wOBA.262
.262*
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.6%
16.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
175 / 60 PA
Walk %8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
175 / 120 PA
BABIP.176
norm.176*
lg avg .295 ▼−.119vs his norm −.114 ▼BABIP is below his ~.290 norm — expect it to rise.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
175 / 50 PA
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
175 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→6.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) tempered to career ~6.4% → projected 6.9%.
BABIP 0.176→0.221 regressednoise.193 AVG — BABIP 0.176 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.203) → 0.221.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 45 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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