110 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Heriberto Hernández
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Hernández is a buy-low — the bat is real, the line is not.
His hard-hit rate has stepped up across his sample and now sits at 45.3%, five points above league average. That number is reliable — 75 batted balls past the stabilization threshold. His average exit velocity is 90.4 mph, also above league, and his barrel rate is right at league average. The contact is real. The reason his actual wOBA is .279, 36 points below league, is his BABIP: .236, 59 points below the league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 75. That gap is luck, not a skill problem. His expected wOBA is .355, well above league. The surface says cold; the underlying numbers say otherwise. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.75
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.236 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL75 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL75 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL75 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040too early to trust
NOISE110 / 160 PA
wOBA.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036too early to trust
NOISE110 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL110 / 60 PA
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.5%too early to trust
NOISE110 / 120 PA
BABIP.236
lg avg .295 ▼−.059too early to trust
NOISE75 / 800 BIP