430 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW
Heriberto Hernández
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.355, +0.040 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.68 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .231R 2RBI 6SB 2
Hernández is a buy — earned production, no luck involved.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %13.9%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.355, +0.040 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
266 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
266 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
266 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
430 / 160 PA
wOBA.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
430 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
430 / 60 PA
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
430 / 120 PA
BABIP.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm −.075 ▼BABIP is below his ~.335 norm — expect it to rise.
266 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
430 / 50 PA
Chase %24.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
430 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.9%→12.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 13.9% (signal) tempered to career ~10.9% → projected 12.6%.
BABIP 0.260→0.277 regressednoise.231 AVG — BABIP 0.260 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.248) → 0.277.
on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (5 in 36 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.