week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Tim Herrin
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.67 is 0.67 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.248 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.67WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0
Herrin is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.2%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~24.3% career norm
- Walk %11.8%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~12.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.248 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.67 is 0.67 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
212 / 200 TBF
xERA3.67
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —
212 / 200 TBF
ERA3.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.10vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
212 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
212 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.248
lg avg .295 ▼−.047vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
212 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
212 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
848 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.2%→23.2%signal4 K — K% 22.2% (signal) lifted to career ~24.3% → projected 23.2% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.67signal3.67 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.67 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.67 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.