MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tim Herrin
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tim Herrin

CLE·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.22 is 1.16 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Herrin is a sell-high — xERA reveals the luck behind the ERA.

His ERA sits at 3.06, but the underlying numbers say that is not sustainable. The main culprit suppressing his ERA is a BABIP-against of .226 — nearly 70 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be trustworthy; he has only 89. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.22, more than a run higher than what the box score shows. When those balls in play start finding holes, the ERA will climb. His strikeout rate (19.4%) is below league average, so there is no overpowering stuff to lean on when the luck normalizes. The data on this card is limited, but the luck story is clear: the ERA is living on borrowed time. Sell high. 19 K with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league streamer, not a hold — sell into the regression.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.4%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~24.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.22 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
89 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
89 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 200 TBF
xERA4.22
4.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 200 TBF
ERA3.06
3.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.4%
norm19.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
139 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.7%
norm13.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~12.2% norm — expect it to fall.
139 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.226
.226*
lg avg .295 ▼−.069vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
139 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
28.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
139 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
544 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.4%→22.3%signal19 K — K% 19.4% (signal) lifted to career ~24.3% → projected 22.3% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 4.22noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.22 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 13.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.62 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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