MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tim Herrin
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tim Herrin

CLE·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.89); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.82WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0

Herrin is a hold — league-average skill with a walk-rate caveat.

His expected ERA is 3.89, a hair below the 4.10 league average, and his sample of 240 batters faced clears the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. The underlying contact numbers agree: xwOBA allowed of .304 sits under the league's .315, and his 14.4% swinging-strike rate is well above the 11.0% mark. The one honest dent is his walk rate at 11.7% against a league average of 8.0%. That gap will keep some runners on base. What matters more is direction — his expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the skill is moving toward the good side of average rather than away from it. Nothing here is unstable enough to push a full buy or a sell in either direction. Hold. Deep-league hold only with 0 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.40 WHIP on the board — a floor arm, not a stream target.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.5%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~24.3% career norm
  • Walk %11.7%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~12.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.89)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
37.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
believable since Jun 38.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
.304*
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
3.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
ERA3.02
3.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
56.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
240 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.7%
norm11.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
240 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.279
.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
240 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
240 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
94.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
983 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→23.3%signal0 K — K% 22.5% (signal) lifted to career ~24.3% → projected 23.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.82 ERA — xERA 3.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 11.7% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.82 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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