MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Portrait of Justin Lawrence
Justin Lawrence
WSH · P
Change to
Portrait of Tim Herrin
Tim Herrin
CLE · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Tim Herrin.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Justin Lawrence’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Tim Herrin wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Justin Lawrence wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
95.6
Tim Herrin
94.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
10.7%
Tim Herrin
14.5%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
24.3%
Tim Herrin
19.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
24.0%
Tim Herrin
28.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Justin Lawrence
43.0%
Tim Herrin
34.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Justin Lawrence
10.0%
Tim Herrin
9.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Justin Lawrence
.380
Tim Herrin
.318
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Justin Lawrence
2.526.12
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.32
3.75
Tim Herrin
2.526.12
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.32
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Justin Lawrence
1.081.79
now 1.55
1.25
Tim Herrin
1.081.79
now 1.63
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Justin Lawrence
4030.60
now 25
22
Tim Herrin
4030.60
now 16
18
Winshigher is better
Justin Lawrence
.000.480
now 0
00
Tim Herrin
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeJustin Lawrence — hold.conf 0.55
Sell HighTim Herrin — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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