MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Justin Lawrence
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Justin Lawrence

WSH·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.330 elevated and unstable, the 7.34 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 6.35 is +2.25 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 23WHIP 1.25ERA 3.75W 0–0SV 0

Lawrence is a hold — the ERA is noisy, but the skill is below average.

Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. His xERA is 6.35 — 2.25 runs above league average — but it has not cleared its stabilization threshold at 177 batters faced (200 needed). His actual ERA is 7.34, inflated further by a BABIP-against of .330 that is elevated and unreliable at 100 batters in play (800 needed). The high walk rate of 15.8% (nearly double league average) and barrel rate allowed of 10.0% (2 points above league) confirm the underlying issues. The ERA overstates the damage, but the skill it regresses to is below average. Hold. With 23 K, a 3.75 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP, he's a deep-league hold, not a bankable asset.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %15.8%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~12.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.3%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~22.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.330 elevated and unstable — the 7.34 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 6.35 is +2.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
43.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
100 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.380
.380*
lg avg .315 ▲+.065vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA6.35
6.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.25vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA7.34
7.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.24vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.3%
norm24.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.8%
norm15.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.330
.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
100 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.0%
24.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
95.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
684 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.3%→23.3%signal23 K — K% 24.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.3% → projected 23.3% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 6.35noise3.75 ERA — xERA 6.35 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 15.8% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.67 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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