MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 12, 2026
Portrait of Justin Lawrence
Justin Lawrence
WSH · P
Change to
Portrait of Sam Hentges
Sam Hentges
SF · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Sam Hentges.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Justin Lawrence’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Sam Hentges wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Justin Lawrence wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
95.6
Sam Hentges
93.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
10.8%
Sam Hentges
12.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
24.3%
Sam Hentges
25.6%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Justin Lawrence
23.7%
Sam Hentges
29.4%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Justin Lawrence
43.9%
Sam Hentges
29.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Justin Lawrence
10.2%
Sam Hentges
4.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Justin Lawrence
.384
Sam Hentges
.317
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Justin Lawrence
26.98
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.32
3.75
Sam Hentges
26.98
lg xERA 4.10
now 1.17
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Justin Lawrence
1.111.70
now 1.55
1.25
Sam Hentges
1.111.70
now 1.57
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Justin Lawrence
4031.40
now 25
25
Sam Hentges
4031.40
now 9
22
Winshigher is better
Justin Lawrence
.000.480
now 0
00
Sam Hentges
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeJustin Lawrence — hold.conf 0.55
Hold · wait & seeSam Hentges — hold.conf 0.50
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