MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Portrait of Alex Lange
Alex Lange
KC · P
Change to
Portrait of Justin Lawrence
Justin Lawrence
WSH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Justin Lawrence.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Alex Lange’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Justin Lawrence wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Alex Lange wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Alex Lange
95.9
Justin Lawrence
95.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Alex Lange
12.1%
Justin Lawrence
10.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Alex Lange
21.1%
Justin Lawrence
24.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Alex Lange
28.4%
Justin Lawrence
24.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Alex Lange
42.3%
Justin Lawrence
43.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Alex Lange
11.7%
Justin Lawrence
10.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Alex Lange
.343
Justin Lawrence
.380
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Alex Lange
3.125.95
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.50
3.77
Justin Lawrence
3.125.95
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.32
3.75
WHIPlower is better
Alex Lange
1.131.67
now 1.35
1.26
Justin Lawrence
1.131.67
now 1.55
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Alex Lange
4031.60
now 26
25
Justin Lawrence
4031.60
now 25
22
Winshigher is better
Alex Lange
.000.480
now 0
00
Justin Lawrence
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeAlex Lange — hold.conf 0.55
Hold · wait & seeJustin Lawrence — hold.conf 0.55
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