Alex Lange
Lange is a sell — his expected ERA sits a run above league.
His expected ERA is 5.01, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for the number to be reliable. That is the skill, not a run of bad bounces. He is allowing hard contact at a 42.1% clip and barrels at 11.9%, both above league, and his expected wOBA allowed of .342 backs up what the xERA says. The trend is the concerning part: his expected ERA has stepped up as the sample has grown, not down. The stuff is not the problem — 95.9 mph fastball, 13% swinging strikes, 30.4% chase, all above league. The strikeout rate is 22.5%, right at league, and the walk rate is 11.6%, nearly four points above it. That combination is what pushes the expected ERA up: hitters are making hard contact and he is giving away free passes. There is no suppressed BABIP-against to point at, no luck story to soften it. His skills do not support the run prevention. Sell. 5 K and a 4.55 ERA over the ROS makes him a drop — streaming-only, not a hold.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.5%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
- Walk %11.6%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~13.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.01 +0.91 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
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