week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Alex Lange
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable, the 5.92 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.90 is +0.80 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25WHIP 1.26ERA 3.77W 0–0SV 0
Lange is a hold — skill is below league, ERA overstates damage.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 25 ROS, WHIP 1.35 YTD → 1.26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.6%—−5.2% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
- Walk %12.9%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~13.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable — the 5.92 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.90 is +0.80 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
107 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
107 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
171 / 200 TBF
xERA4.90
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.80vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
171 / 200 TBF
ERA5.92
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.82vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −5.2% ▼
171 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
171 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.324
lg avg .295 ▲+.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
107 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
171 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
171 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
733 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.6%→24.4%signal25 K — K% 21.6% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 24.4% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.90noise3.77 ERA — xERA 4.90 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 12.9% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.59 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.