MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mitch Farris
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Mitch Farris

LAA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.39 +1.29 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 6ERA 4.80WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Farris is a sell — the contact he allows is below league, and it is getting worse.

His expected ERA is 5.39, a run and a quarter worse than the league average of 4.1, and that number is past the sample it needs to be reliable. This is not a bad-luck case either: his xwOBA allowed of .353 sits well above the .315 league mark, and he has faced enough batters for that to hold. The contact quality he gives up backs the same conclusion — a 48.9% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average and a 10.1% barrel rate against 8%, both on samples big enough to trust. His fastball averages 91.7 mph, well short of the 94 mph league norm, and his walk rate is 11.4% against 8%. The expected ERA has been stepping up across the season and nothing in the profile points to a turnaround. Sell. With a 4.80 ERA and 1.39 WHIP ROS, this is a drop — deep-league streaming-only at best.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.7%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~21.9% career norm
  • Walk %11.4%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~10.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.39 +1.29 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.9%
48.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
believable since May 2610.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
.353*
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
xERA5.39
5.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.29vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
norm24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
219 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
norm11.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
219 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.338
.338*
lg avg .295 ▲+.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
91.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
848 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→23.4%signal6 K — K% 24.7% (signal) tempered to career ~21.9% → projected 23.4% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 5.39signal4.80 ERA — xERA 5.39 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.80 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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