week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Mitch Farris
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.51WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0
Farris is a sell — his expected ERA is a run above league
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.4%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~21.9% career norm
- Walk %11.2%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~10.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
165 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
165 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
258 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —
258 / 200 TBF
ERA4.05
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.05vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
258 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
258 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.323
lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
165 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
258 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
258 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
992 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.4%→23.3%signal0 K — K% 24.4% (signal) tempered to career ~21.9% → projected 23.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95signal4.51 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 11.2% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.51 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.