MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Cade Cavalli
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Cade Cavalli

WSH·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.72
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.22W 0–1SV 0

Cavalli is a buy — his velocity and expected ERA say the skill is real.

His expected ERA is 3.70, four-tenths of a run better than the league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His fastball is averaging 96.9 mph, nearly three mph above league, and it has been climbing across the season — that is the foundation everything else is built on. He strikes out 27.9% of batters, well above league, and walks only 6.9%. His expected wOBA allowed of .298 is better than league average, and his hard-hit rate allowed sits right at league level, so nothing is being propped up by luck. The velocity is real, the strikeout rate is real, and the expected ERA has been stepping down, not up. Buy. Deep-league asset only: 14 K and a 3.70 ERA ROS, but the 96.9 mph fastball makes him worth a stash now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.9%—+5.4% ▲vs his ~22.5% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.7%
40.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
418 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
418 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.298
.298*
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —
663 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
3.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —
663 / 200 TBF
ERA3.12
3.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.98vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
158.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.9%
norm27.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm +5.4% ▲
663 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
663 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
.310*
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
418 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
663 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
31.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
663 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
2608 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.9%→26.7%signal14 K — K% 27.9% (signal) tempered to career ~22.5% → projected 26.7% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.70signal3.70 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.70 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep14 K ROS, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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