MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Cade Cavalli
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Cade Cavalli

WSH·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.68, 0.42 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 0ERA 3.68WHIP 1.21W 0–0SV 0

Cavalli is a buy — his xERA keeps stepping down and the velo is real.

His expected ERA is 3.68 — 0.42 below the league average of 4.10 — and 706 batters faced is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. It has been dropping as the sample grows, which is what separates a pitcher who is making adjustments from one who is getting results on contact the defense happens to catch. The whiff and discipline numbers back it: 13.0% swinging strikes against 11.0% league, a 28.3% strikeout rate well above the 22.0% average, and a 6.8% walk rate below it. His fastball is also getting faster, now 96.8 mph against a 94.0 league mark. This is a bat-missing starter throwing harder with each appearance, and the underlying contact quality has nothing on it. Buy. 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP is a deep-league asset worth stashing now, before the strikeout volume follows.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.3%—+5.8% ▲vs his ~22.5% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.68, 0.42 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.5%
40.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
442 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
442 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
.296*
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
706 / 200 TBF
xERA3.68
3.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.42vs his norm —
706 / 200 TBF
ERA3.02
3.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
169.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
norm28.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +5.8% ▲
706 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
706 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
.307*
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
442 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
706 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
706 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
2777 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→27.0%signal0 K — K% 28.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.5% → projected 27.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.68signal3.68 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.68 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.68 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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