week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Cade Cavalli
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.16); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 63ERA 4.14WHIP 1.31W 2–4SV 0
Cavalli is a hold — league average with no edge.
ROS projects K 74 YTD → 63 ROS, ERA 3.62 YTD → 4.14 ROS, WHIP 1.42 YTD → 1.31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.4%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~22.5% career norm
- Walk %7.4%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
279 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
279 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
433 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —
433 / 200 TBF
ERA3.83
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
98.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
433 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
433 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.344
lg avg .295 ▲+.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
279 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
433 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
433 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
1682 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→24.5%signal63 K — K% 25.4% (signal) tempered to career ~22.5% → projected 24.5% over ~57 remaining…
xERA 4.16signal4.14 ERA — xERA 4.16 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 65 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.312 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop63 K ROS, 4.14 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.