91 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Rodolfo Durán
data as of July 21, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 21, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.257); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .158HR 3R 8RBI 8SB 0
Durán is a hold — league average with small samples across the board.
ROS projects AVG .087 YTD → .158 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.257)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.257
lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 160 PA
wOBA.236
lg avg .315 ▼−.079vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
91 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 120 PA
BABIP.164
lg avg .295 ▼−.131vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.5%→8.4%noise3 HR — Barrel% 8.5% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.4%.
BABIP 0.164→0.225 regressednoise.158 AVG — BABIP 0.164 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.180) → 0.225.
on-base + lineup8 R — his run rate over ~118 projected PA.
slugging + lineup8 RBI — his RBI rate over ~118 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 12 G) over ~118 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.