week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Dylan Lee
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.213 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 1.83 is 0.36 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.57WHIP 1.22W 1–2SV 0
Lee is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %34.0%—+4.3% ▲vs his ~29.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.213 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 1.83 is 0.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.9%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.211
lg avg .315 ▼−.104vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
156 / 200 TBF
xERA1.83
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.27vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
156 / 200 TBF
ERA1.47
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.63vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.0%vs his norm +4.3% ▲
156 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −1.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~5.7% norm — expect it to rise.
156 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.213
lg avg .295 ▼−.082vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %21.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+10.1%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
626 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.0%→31.6%signal25 K — K% 34.0% (signal) tempered to career ~29.7% → projected 31.6% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 1.83noise3.57 ERA — xERA 1.83 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 4.5% + contactnoise1.22 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 0.97 skill WHIP, blended 7%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.