Is Eduard Bazardo a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Eduard Bazardo's rest-of-season outlook?

3.90 ERA hides 4.69 xERA and .333 BABIP luck

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Eduard Bazardo

SEA·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.73

ROSK 4ERA 4.34WHIP 1.31W 0–1SV 0

Bazardo is a sell — expected ERA runs above league with no luck to blame.

His expected ERA is 4.69, and that is .59 above the league average of 4.10, with enough batters faced for the number to be reliable. It has been climbing across the sample, so this is not one rough stretch. His expected wOBA allowed is .332, .017 above league, another sign the contact he gives up is slightly worse than average. There is no luck story on this page: his walk rate is right at league average and his strikeout rate is only a touch better than average, so the run prevention is what the skill metrics say it is. He gives up barrels at 9.1%, above the league mark, and his swinging-strike rate is 9.7% and below league. Sell. 4 K and a 4.34 ERA ROS make him waiver-wire fodder — drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %23.3%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~24.8% career norm
Walk %8.0%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —

187 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

187 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.332

lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —

275 / 200 TBF

xERA4.69

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —

275 / 200 TBF

ERA3.90

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

62.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %23.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −1.5% ▼

275 / 70 TBF

Walk %8.0%

lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −0.3% ▼

275 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.333

lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

187 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —

275 / 60 TBF

Chase %26.4%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —

275 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo95.5 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —

1052 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 23.3%→23.9%signal4 K — K% 23.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.8% → projected 23.9% over ~5 remaining IP.

xERA 4.69signal4.34 ERA — xERA 4.69 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 25 IP.

BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons