week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler Holton
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.77); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0
Holton is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 20 ROS, WHIP 1.37 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.8%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm
- Walk %5.6%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.77)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
130 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA3.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA3.21
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.89vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
687 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.8%→20.6%signal20 K — K% 19.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 20.6% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.77noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.77 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 7%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.