MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Holton
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tyler Holton

DET·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 0ERA 3.75WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Holton is a buy — the contact suppression is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 3.78, 0.32 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 301 batters — past the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. Nothing in his profile is propping it up. He allows a 37.6% hard-hit rate and 5.4% barrels, both below league, on 221 batted balls, and his expected wOBA allowed of .300 sits under the .315 mark. The one thing that stands out: he does it without missing bats, striking out 18.3% against a league rate of 22.0%, with a fastball averaging 91.5 mph. The swing-and-miss and chase rates are dead on league. He keeps the ball off the barrel by locating and limiting walks (6.3%), and the xERA has stepped down across the sample rather than drifted. That is a repeatable profile, not a hot streak. Buy. The 3.75 ERA / 1.30 WHIP won't win a category, but deep-league innings are an asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.3%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.3%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
221 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
5.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
221 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
believable since Jul 28.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
301 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —
301 / 200 TBF
ERA2.75
2.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.35vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −3.1% ▼
301 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
301 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.299
.299*
lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
221 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —
301 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
301 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
1130 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→19.5%signal0 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 19.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78signal3.75 ERA — xERA 3.78 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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