MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Sheets
322 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Gavin Sheets

SD·1B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63
ROSHR 3AVG .207R 21RBI 22SB 3

Sheets is a buy — contact quality is climbing, skill is real.

His hard-hit rate is 41.0%, a tick above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample — now at 210 batted ball events, well past the stabilization point. That rise is pulling his expected wOBA to .331, .016 above league average, and his 322 plate appearances make that number trustworthy. His actual wOBA sits at .330, nearly identical to xwOBA, so there is no luck inflating the line. He walks at 11.8%, well above league, and chases at only 31.1%, a disciplined approach that supports the contact gains. The combination of a improving contact quality and a solid plate approach is sustainable. The skill is here and the trajectory points up. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~7.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.2 mph
88.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.0%
41.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
210 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
.331*
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
322 / 160 PA
wOBA.330
believable since Jun 7.330*
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
322 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.7%
21.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
322 / 60 PA
Walk %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
322 / 120 PA
BABIP.245
norm.245*
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm −.022 ▼BABIP is below his ~.267 norm — expect it to rise.
210 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
322 / 50 PA
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
322 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→7.3%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) tempered to career ~7.1% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.245→0.256 regressednoise.207 AVG — BABIP 0.245 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.260 (xBA 0.242) → 0.256.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~175 projected PA.
slugging + lineup22 RBI — his RBI rate over ~175 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 53 G) over ~175 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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