MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Sheets
412 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Gavin Sheets

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from BUY
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.317); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .188R 5RBI 5SB 1

Sheets is a hold — league average, with a walk-rate edge.

His expected wOBA is .317 against a league average of .315, and with 412 plate appearances his sample is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA sits at .313, basically the same, so nothing in his line is being propped up by luck or dragged down by it. The one thing that separates him from the rest of the league-average pile is his walk rate: 11.9% against a league average of 8.5%. He also strikes out less than average and swings at fewer pitches outside the zone. His contact quality is close to league — 87.4 mph off the bat, a 38.7% hard-hit rate — and his expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample. There is no edge to buy and nothing unstable to sell. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.9%−0.2%vs his ~7.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.317)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
87.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.6 mphvs his norm —
274 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.7%
38.7%*
lg avg 40.0% −1.3%vs his norm —
274 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.1%vs his norm −0.2%
274 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
.317*
lg avg .315 +.002vs his norm —
412 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 −.002vs his norm —
412 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.4%
20.4%*
lg avg 22.0% −1.6%vs his norm —
412 / 60 PA
Walk %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.5% +3.4%vs his norm —
412 / 120 PA
BABIP.229
norm.229*
lg avg .295 −.066vs his norm −.038 BABIP is below his ~.267 normexpect it to rise.
274 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 11.0% −1.9%vs his norm —
412 / 50 PA
Chase %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 28.5% +2.5%vs his norm —
412 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.9%→7.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) held to career ~7.1% → projected 7.0%.
BABIP 0.229→0.239 regressednoise.188 AVG — BABIP 0.229 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.244 (xBA 0.230) → 0.239.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 53 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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