MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Sheets
419 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Gavin Sheets

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.316); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Sheets is a hold — league-average skill and nothing unstable moving it.

His expected wOBA is .316 against a league average of .315, and he has 419 plate appearances, well past the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .315 — identical to the expected figure — so no luck stat is inflating or dragging the line. His contact quality sits just under league: 87.4 mph average exit velocity against 89.0, a 38.2% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and 7.1% barrels against 8.0%, all over 280 batted balls and therefore stable. The one thing moving in his favor is the trajectory — his expected wOBA is stepping up across the sample. He also walks 11.7% of the time, above the 8.5% league mark, which keeps his on-base floor steady even when the bat is quiet. There is no signal to buy and no signal to sell. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.1%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~7.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.316)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
87.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
280 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.2%
38.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
280 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
280 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
419 / 160 PA
wOBA.315
believable since Jun 7.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
419 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.3%
20.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
419 / 60 PA
Walk %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
419 / 120 PA
BABIP.228
norm.228*
lg avg .295 ▼−.067vs his norm −.039 ▼BABIP is below his ~.267 norm — expect it to rise.
280 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
419 / 50 PA
Chase %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
419 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.1%→7.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.1% (signal) tempered to career ~7.1% → projected 7.1%.
BABIP 0.228→0.237 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.228 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.242 (xBA 0.229) → 0.237.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 53 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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