MLB Daily DeltaWeek 15 · July 8, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob Lopez
week 15
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Jacob Lopez

ATH·P
data as of July 8, 2026·week 15
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.02); strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 55ERA 4.02WHIP 1.59W 3–7SV 0

Lopez is a hold — league average, limited ceiling.

His expected ERA sits at 4.02, right at league average, with enough batters faced for the number to be stable. His xwOBA allowed at .311 is similarly neutral. The reason he is not more than that is the strikeout rate: 15.6%, well below the 22% league average and even below his own career baseline of 22.5%. That number has also been stepping down across the sample. He limits hard contact — 31.4% hard-hit allowed against a 40% league average — and suppresses barrels (4.7% vs. 8.0%), so the contact management is real. But without whiffs the ceiling stays low. He walks too many (13.6%) and his fastball sits 90.6 mph. There is nothing pulling him sharply up or down right now. Hold. 55 K, 4.02 ERA, 1.59 WHIP make him a streaming-only drop in shallow formats — in standard leagues there is no urgency.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.6%—−6.9% ▼vs his ~22.5% career norm
  • Walk %13.6%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~10.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.02)
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
172 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.7%
4.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
172 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
243 / 200 TBF
xERA4.02
4.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08vs his norm —
243 / 200 TBF
ERA6.75
6.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.65vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.6%
norm15.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −6.9% ▼
243 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.6%
norm13.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
243 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
243 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
243 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
978 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.6%→18.7%signal55 K — K% 15.6% (signal) lifted to career ~22.5% → projected 18.7% over ~61 remaining IP.
xERA 4.02signal4.02 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.02 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.6% + contactsignal1.59 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.74 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop55 K ROS, 4.02 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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