MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob Lopez
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jacob Lopez

ATH·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.49, 0.61 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.78
ROSK 9ERA 3.49WHIP 1.41W 1–1SV 0

Lopez is a buy — the contact suppression is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 3.49, which is 0.61 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. The reason it is that low: he allows a 30.2% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, and a 6.3% barrel rate against 8.0%. Those are contact-quality numbers on 331 balls in play, well past where they become reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .290, 25 points better than league. There is nothing fluky propping this up — his strikeout and walk rates are close to league average, so he is not hiding behind a lucky BABIP. The xERA has been stepping down across the sample. This is what the skill looks like when it is stable. Buy. A 9 K / 3.49 ERA / 1.41 WHIP line is a deep-league asset, not a stash — add now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.1%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~22.5% career norm
  • Walk %10.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~10.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.49, 0.61 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm —
331 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
331 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
492 / 200 TBF
xERA3.49
3.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —
492 / 200 TBF
ERA4.78
4.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.68vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.1%
norm21.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
492 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
492 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
331 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
492 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
492 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.4 mph
90.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.6 mphvs his norm —
1984 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.1%→21.5%signal9 K — K% 21.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.5% → projected 21.5% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 3.49signal3.49 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.49 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.8% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep9 K ROS, 3.49 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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