MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob Lopez
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jacob Lopez

ATH·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 0ERA 3.65WHIP 1.42W 0–0SV 0

Lopez is a buy — his contact suppression is earned, not luck

His xERA is 3.65, 0.45 runs better than league average, and the sample behind it is large enough to trust. The number that does the most work is his hard-hit rate allowed: 31.5% against a league average of 40.0%, off 377 batted balls, well past the point where that figure stabilizes. His expected wOBA allowed, .295, sits below the .315 league mark for the same reason. He is not doing it with strikeouts — he fans 20.3% of batters, a tick under league, and walks 10.5%, above it. He gets outs on contact instead, and his xERA has been stepping down across the sample. The ERA may not show it yet, but the skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. Deep-league asset: 0 K / 3.65 ERA / 1.42 WHIP with 0 SV means the ratio help is the add, not the punchouts.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.3%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~22.5% career norm
  • Walk %10.5%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~10.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.5%
31.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —
377 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
377 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
551 / 200 TBF
xERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —
551 / 200 TBF
ERA5.47
5.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.37vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
123.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.3%
norm20.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
551 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
551 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.293
.293*
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
377 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
551 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
551 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.3 mph
90.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.7 mphvs his norm —
2243 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.3%→20.9%signal0 K — K% 20.3% (signal) lifted to career ~22.5% → projected 20.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.65signal3.65 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.65 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.65 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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