MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Ryan Feltner

COL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.89 +0.79 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 4.61WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 0

Feltner is a sell — his xERA says the skill is below league.

His expected ERA is 4.89, a full .79 above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced 548 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The rest of the profile backs it up: his expected wOBA allowed is .337 against a .315 league mark, and his barrel rate allowed is 9.5%, above the 8.0% league average. The strikeout rate is the clearest problem. He strikes out 16.8% of batters against a 22.0% league average, so he is not missing bats enough to offset the contact he allows, and his walk rate of 9.7% sits above league too. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not settling down. There is no suppressed BABIP-against here propping up the line and no bad-luck story to buy into — this is the level he is at. Sell. 0 K and a 4.61 ERA is a waiver-wire arm, not a hold — drop him before that 1.44 WHIP drags your ratios.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.8%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~19.4% career norm
  • Walk %9.7%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.89 +0.79 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
401 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
401 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
believable since Jun 29.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
548 / 200 TBF
xERA4.89
4.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —
548 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
5.40*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
123.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.8%
norm16.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
548 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
548 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
401 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
548 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
27.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
548 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
2049 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.8%→17.5%signal0 K — K% 16.8% (signal) lifted to career ~19.4% → projected 17.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.89signal4.61 ERA — xERA 4.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 26 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.61 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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