week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Ryan Feltner
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.22 +1.12 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 4.83WHIP 1.46W 1–1SV 0
Feltner is a sell — his expected ERA is over a run above league.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.9%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~19.4% career norm
- Walk %10.0%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.22 +1.12 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
349 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
349 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
479 / 200 TBF
xERA5.22
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.12vs his norm —
479 / 200 TBF
ERA5.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
106.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
479 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
479 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
349 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
479 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
479 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
1780 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.9%→17.6%signal8 K — K% 16.9% (signal) lifted to career ~19.4% → projected 17.6% over ~11 remaining IP.
xERA 5.22signal4.83 ERA — xERA 5.22 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 26 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.46 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.55 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop8 K ROS, 4.83 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.