MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Ryan Feltner

COL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.09 is 0.54 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87
ROSK 35ERA 4.74WHIP 1.38W 2–5SV 0

Feltner is a sell-high — BABIP is masking a 5.09 xERA.

His ERA sits at 4.55, but his BABIP-against is .255 — 40 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 195. That gap is luck, not skill, and his expected ERA of 5.09 tells the real story. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, meaning the underlying skill is actually worsening. His strikeout rate is well below league average at 17.6%, and his barrel rate allowed is above league. There is no elite-stuff story to fall back on when the BABIP normalizes. The surface line is a gift from the BABIP gods. Sell high while the market still sees the 4.55. Projected 4.74 ERA, 35 K make Feltner a streaming-only drop — sell into the BABIP mirage now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.6%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~19.4% career norm
  • Walk %9.0%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.09 is 0.54 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%
39.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
195 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
195 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
believable since Jun 29.346*
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
xERA5.09
5.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.99vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
ERA4.55
4.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
63.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
norm17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
267 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
267 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.255
.255*
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
195 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.3%
26.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
94.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
1004 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→18.4%signal35 K — K% 17.6% (signal) lifted to career ~19.4% → projected 18.4% over ~46 remaining IP.
xERA 5.09signal4.74 ERA — xERA 5.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 26 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop35 K ROS, 4.74 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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