MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Aaron Ashby
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Aaron Ashby

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 2.85 sits 1.25 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.72
ROSK 8ERA 2.85WHIP 1.31W 1–2SV 0

Ashby is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a real arm

His xERA is 2.85, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. It has been stepping down across the sample. The number inflating his ERA is his BABIP-against: .333 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 199, so that gap is luck, not skill. The rest of the profile backs the skill: he strikes out 31.2% of batters, his fastball sits at 97.3 mph and has been stepping up, and he allows barrels at 4.5% against a league average of 8.0%. This is a pitcher whose results have not caught up to his stuff. Buy low. Deep-league only, but 8 K and a 2.85 ERA at this price is a buy-low window worth pouncing on.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.2%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~28.3% career norm
  • Walk %11.2%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.85 sits 1.25 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.7%
40.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
199 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
199 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
believable since Jun 24.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
349 / 200 TBF
xERA2.85
2.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —
349 / 200 TBF
ERA3.25
3.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.85vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
80.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.2%
norm31.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.2%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
349 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.2%
norm11.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
349 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
199 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
349 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
349 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
1433 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.2%→30.1%signal8 K — K% 31.2% (signal) tempered to career ~28.3% → projected 30.1% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 2.85signal2.85 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.85 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.2% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep2.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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