MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Aaron Ashby
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Aaron Ashby

MIL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.12 sits 0.98 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.73
ROSK 35ERA 3.12WHIP 1.33W 4–10SV 0

Ashby is a buy-low — the ERA is not the truth.

His xERA is 3.12, nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the sample. The box score shows a 3.56 ERA, which is actually still good, but that number would look worse if not for a .343 BABIP-against — 48 points above league. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 139. That gap is luck, not skill. His fastball is 97.3 mph, trending up, and above league. He strikes out 30.6% of batters and limits barrels to 5.0% against a league-average 8.0%. The arm is legit. The ERA is being inflated by noise. Buy low. 35 K with a 3.12 xERA makes him a deep-league buy; the surface ERA masks the skill.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.6%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~28.3% career norm
  • Walk %11.8%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.12 sits 0.98 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
believable since Jun 24.276*
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —
245 / 200 TBF
xERA3.12
3.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.98vs his norm —
245 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
3.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
55.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.6%
norm30.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
245 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
norm11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
245 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.343
.343*
lg avg .295 ▲+.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
245 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
245 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
983 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.6%→29.6%signal35 K — K% 30.6% (signal) tempered to career ~28.3% → projected 29.6% over ~26 remaining…
xERA 3.12signal3.12 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.12 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role4-10 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups