MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Landen Roupp
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Landen Roupp

SF·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 3.36, 0.74 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.82
ROSK 62ERA 3.36WHIP 1.36W 3–6SV 0

Roupp is a buy — elite suppression, steady improvement.

His expected ERA is 3.36, three-quarters of a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 411 batters — enough for that number to be reliable. The building blocks match: a 25.3% strikeout rate beats the league by three points, and he holds opponents to a 28.2% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%. That is not a fluke — his sample of batted balls is past the stabilization threshold. His barrel rate allowed is 3.8%, half the league norm. The xERA has been stepping down across the sample, meaning his underlying skill is actually getting better. He walks a few more than average, but nothing that undermines the core story: he suppresses contact and earns his results. Buy. 62 K, 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3-6 W — this is a deep-league asset with reliable skills; add now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.3%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~22.9% career norm
  • Walk %10.2%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.36, 0.74 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.8%vs his norm —
262 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
3.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
262 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
411 / 200 TBF
xERA3.36
3.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —
411 / 200 TBF
ERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
97 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
norm25.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
411 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
norm10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
411 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
.307*
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
262 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
411 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
28.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
411 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
1736 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→24.5%signal62 K — K% 25.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.9% → projected 24.5% over ~57 remaining…
xERA 3.36signal3.36 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.36 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.2% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep62 K ROS, 3.36 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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