MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Landen Roupp
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Landen Roupp

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.84); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Roupp is a hold — league average with no luck lever to pull

His expected ERA is 3.84, a shade better than the league average of 4.10, and with 657 batters faced that number is stable. What he allows on contact is a little better than league too: xwOBA allowed of .302 against a .315 league mark, a 30% hard-hit rate allowed against 40%, and a 5.1% barrel rate allowed against 8%. The strikeout rate is exactly league average at 21.8%, and the swinging-strike rate matches it at 10.6%. The one number that hurts is his 11.4% walk rate, four points above league. Nothing here is being propped up by a luck stat that could swing back hard, and nothing is being dragged down by one either. His expected ERA has stepped down as the sample has grown, which firms the read rather than changing it. Hold. A 0 K / 3.84 ERA / 1.39 WHIP line is deep-league hold only — the zero strikeouts leave him a quiet ratio streamer, not an asset.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %11.4%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %21.8%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~22.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.84)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.0%
30.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.0%vs his norm —
434 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
434 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
657 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —
657 / 200 TBF
ERA4.01
4.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
155 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.8%
norm21.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
657 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
norm11.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
657 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
434 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
657 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
657 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
2712 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.8%→22.1%signal0 K — K% 21.8% (signal) held to career ~22.9% → projected 22.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84signal3.84 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.84 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.84 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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