205 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Nick Loftin
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.318); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .249R 19RBI 24SB 0
Loftin is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .214 YTD → .249 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.2%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~5.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.318)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.9%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
205 / 160 PA
wOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
205 / 200 PA
Strikeout %12.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.3%vs his norm —
205 / 60 PA
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
205 / 120 PA
BABIP.264
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm +.016 ▲BABIP is above his ~.248 norm — expect it to fall.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
205 / 50 PA
Chase %21.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —
205 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.2%→5.2%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.2% (signal) held to career ~5.3% → projected 5.2%.
BABIP 0.264→0.275 regressednoise.249 AVG — BABIP 0.264 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.278 (xBA 0.246) → 0.275.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~148 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~148 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 28 G) over ~148 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.