MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Isaac Collins
519 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Isaac Collins

KC·LF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Collins is a sell — the skill is below league and it is not luck.

His expected wOBA is .295, twenty points under the league average of .315, and he has 519 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .293, tracking the expected figure almost exactly, so there is no bad-luck story dragging the line down and no suppressed BABIP to bounce back. The contact is short too: 5.2% barrels against an 8.0% league average, with exit velocity and hard-hit rate each a tick below the league. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which is the wrong direction for anyone waiting on a turnaround. His plate discipline is genuinely good — a 12.3% walk rate, low chase, low swing-and-miss — but that buys pitches, not production. The skill is what it looks like. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is pure waiver fodder — fringe at best, so sell.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.2%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~4.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph
88.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
328 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
328 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.2%
norm5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
328 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
519 / 160 PA
wOBA.293
believable since Jun 5.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —
519 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.1%
23.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
519 / 60 PA
Walk %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
519 / 120 PA
BABIP.276
norm.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm −.049 ▼BABIP is below his ~.325 norm — expect it to rise.
328 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
519 / 50 PA
Chase %22.0%
22.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
519 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.2%→5.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.2% (signal) tempered to career ~4.9% → projected 5.1%.
BABIP 0.276→0.281 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.276 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.285 (xBA 0.220) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 52 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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