week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Gabe Speier
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.70 is 0.76 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.85 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0
Speier is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.7%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
- Walk %7.9%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.70 is 0.76 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
125 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
125 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 200 TBF
ERA2.94
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
190 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
190 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
190 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
190 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
698 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.7%→26.2%signal0 K — K% 23.7% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 26.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.70noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.70 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.