MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jo Adell
590 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Jo Adell

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.326); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .234R 4RBI 6SB 1

Adell is a hold — average skill, nothing pulling either way.

His expected wOBA is .326 against a league average of .315, and he has 590 plate appearances behind it, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .305, twenty-one points below his expected mark — the contact has been better than the results, and that xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample. His contact quality is a touch above league: 90.0 mph average exit velocity, a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 8.9% barrels on 403 batted balls. The warning sign is a 4.7% walk rate against a league average of 8.5%, and he swings at 35.9% of pitches outside the zone. That profile produces empty at-bats. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell or strong enough to chase. Hold. 1 HR / 4 R / 6 RBI / 1 SB / .234 AVG is streaming-only filler, a deep-league drag — hold, but nothing here earns a roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.9%−5.7%vs his ~14.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.326)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph
90.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +1.0 mphvs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% +3.5%vs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% +0.9%vs his norm −5.7%
403 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.326
.326*
lg avg .315 +.011vs his norm —
590 / 160 PA
wOBA.305
.305*
lg avg .315 −.010vs his norm —
590 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.9%
23.9%*
lg avg 22.0% +1.9%vs his norm —
590 / 60 PA
Walk %4.7%
4.7%*
lg avg 8.5% −3.8%vs his norm —
590 / 120 PA
BABIP.285
norm.285*
lg avg .295 −.010vs his norm +.031 BABIP is above his ~.254 normexpect it to fall.
403 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
15.1%*
lg avg 11.0% +4.1%vs his norm —
590 / 50 PA
Chase %35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 28.5% +7.4%vs his norm —
590 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.9%→10.8%signal1 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (signal) lifted to career ~14.6% → projected 10.8%.
BABIP 0.285→0.292 regressednoise.234 AVG — BABIP 0.285 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.299 (xBA 0.256) → 0.292.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 61 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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