MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jo Adell
660 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Jo Adell

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.329); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Adell is a hold — league-average bat with a rising expected line.

His expected wOBA is .329, up across the sample and sitting .014 above the league average of .315, and 660 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .307, so the line is trailing his expected production — but the gap is small enough to call it sequencing, not a slump with an easy fix. The contact quality is solid: 90.4 mph average exit velocity, a 44.9% hard-hit rate, and 8.9% barrels, all past the batted-ball sample that makes them meaningful. The drag is plate discipline. He swings and misses 15% of the time, chases 35.3% of pitches off the plate, and walks just 5.2% of the time, which caps how much good contact can show up on the stat line. There is a real bat here, just not one the numbers say to chase. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.9%—−5.7% ▼vs his ~14.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.329)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.4 mph
90.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
451 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
451 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −5.7% ▼
451 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
660 / 160 PA
wOBA.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
660 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.8%
23.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
660 / 60 PA
Walk %5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
660 / 120 PA
BABIP.285
norm.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm +.031 ▲BABIP is above his ~.254 norm — expect it to fall.
451 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
660 / 50 PA
Chase %35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
660 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.9%→10.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (signal) lifted to career ~14.6% → projected 10.7%.
BABIP 0.285→0.292 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.285 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.300 (xBA 0.257) → 0.292.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 61 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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