68 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Max Schuemann
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP 0.314 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.338 is 0.038 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .204HR 2R 33RBI 14SB 10
Schuemann is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.314 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.338 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
37 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
37 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +8.9% ▲Barrel % is above his ~4.6% norm — expect it to fall.
37 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.338
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
68 / 160 PA
wOBA.376
lg avg .315 ▲+.061vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
68 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
68 / 60 PA
Walk %16.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
68 / 120 PA
BABIP.314
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm +.043 ▲BABIP is above his ~.271 norm — expect it to fall.
37 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
68 / 50 PA
Chase %19.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
68 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.5%→6.0%noise2 HR — Barrel% 13.5% (noise) tempered to career ~4.6% → projected 6.0%.
BABIP 0.314→0.265 regressednoise.204 AVG — BABIP 0.314 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.263 (xBA 0.208) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup33 R — his run rate over ~114 projected PA.
slugging + lineup14 RBI — his RBI rate over ~114 projected PA.
run rate / role10 SB — his steal rate (2 in 13 G) over ~114 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.