week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
Daniel Palencia
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.06 sits 0.04 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.85 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 1–1
Palencia is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP, the arm is real.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.3%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~26.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.06 sits 0.04 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.9%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 200 TBF
ERA4.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
22 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
95 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm −1.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.9% norm — expect it to rise.
95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.351
lg avg .295 ▲+.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.2 mphvs his norm —
377 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.3%→26.7%signal4 K — K% 26.3% (signal) lifted to career ~26.9% → projected 26.7% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.06 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.