week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Daniel Palencia
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.76); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Palencia is a hold — average results, no luck doing the work.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.4%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~26.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.76)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
81 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
81 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 200 TBF
xERA3.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 200 TBF
ERA3.64
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
123 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −1.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.9% norm — expect it to rise.
123 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
123 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
123 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.2 mphvs his norm —
477 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.4%→26.0%signal0 K — K% 24.4% (signal) lifted to career ~26.9% → projected 26.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.76noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.76 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep3 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.