week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Daniel Palencia
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.71); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 3–6
Palencia is a hold — limited data, no edge.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.8%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~26.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.71)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.6%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
71 / 200 TBF
xERA3.71
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
71 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
16.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
71 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −1.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.9% norm — expect it to rise.
71 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.341
lg avg .295 ▲+.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
71 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
71 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.4 mphvs his norm —
289 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→26.9%signal19 K — K% 26.8% (signal) held to career ~26.9% → projected 26.9% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 3.71noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.71 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)3-6 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.