week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Abner Uribe
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.81 is 0.84 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.81WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Uribe is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %8.1%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~11.7% career norm
- Strikeout %26.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.81 is 0.84 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
152 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
152 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.260
lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
xERA2.81
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.29vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
ERA1.97
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.13vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
234 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
234 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
918 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→27.5%signal0 K — K% 26.5% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 27.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.81signal2.81 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.81 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard5 SV, 2.81 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.