week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Abner Uribe
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.74 is 0.82 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 2.74WHIP 1.26W 0–1SV 1–1
Uribe is a sell-high — the ERA is built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.9%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
- Walk %9.0%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~11.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.74 is 0.82 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
130 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.258
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
xERA2.74
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.36vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
ERA1.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.18vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
201 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
201 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
801 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→27.3%signal5 K — K% 25.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 27.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.74signal2.74 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.74 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 2.74 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.