MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Taylor
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Grant Taylor

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.97, 1.13 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.97WHIP 1.20W 0–0SV 0–0

Taylor is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and the run prevention is earned.

His expected ERA is 2.97, more than a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The fastball is the engine: 98.1 mph, four ticks above league, and the velocity has stepped up across the sample while his expected ERA has stepped down. He strikes out 31.5% of batters, well above the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 13.7% backs it up. The gap between his expected wOBA allowed (.267) and league (.315) is the same story told from the contact side. His walk rate of 8.9% is slightly above league, the one soft spot, but it does not undo the rest. Nothing here is being propped up by luck. The skill is real. Buy. Projected 2.97 ERA and 1.20 WHIP make him an asset — grab the elite ratios before the market catches up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.5%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~35.1% career norm
  • Walk %8.9%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.97, 1.13 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
41.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
199 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
199 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
believable since Jul 20.267*
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —
336 / 200 TBF
xERA2.97
2.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.13vs his norm —
336 / 200 TBF
ERA2.25
2.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.85vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.5%
norm31.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
336 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
336 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
199 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
13.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
336 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
336 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.1 mph
98.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.1 mphvs his norm —
1333 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.5%→32.9%signal0 K — K% 31.5% (signal) lifted to career ~35.1% → projected 32.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.97signal2.97 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.97 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterstandard2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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