week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Grant Taylor
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.76 is 0.60 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 2.76WHIP 1.17W 0–0SV 0–0
Taylor is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %32.4%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~35.1% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.76 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.259
lg avg .315 ▼−.056vs his norm —
299 / 200 TBF
xERA2.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.34vs his norm —
299 / 200 TBF
ERA2.16
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.94vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
299 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
299 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
299 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
299 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.1 mphvs his norm —
1193 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.4%→33.5%signal8 K — K% 32.4% (signal) lifted to career ~35.1% → projected 33.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.76signal2.76 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.76 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterstandard2.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.