Is Brett Sullivan a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Brett Sullivan's rest-of-season outlook?

86.8 mph exit velo, 33% hard-hit — contact won't play at Coors.

210 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Brett Sullivan

COL·C

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60

ROSHR 0AVG .220R 2RBI 3SB 0

Sullivan is a sell — below-league skill with no bad-luck cover.

His expected wOBA is .288 against a league average of .315, and he has 210 plate appearances — past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA of .308 sits nearly on top of the expected figure, so there is no charge of bad luck to file. The contact behind it is equally thin: 86.8 mph average exit velocity, a 32.9% hard-hit rate, and 4.3% barrels, each well under league and each on a sample that clears its threshold. His xwOBA has stepped down across the season rather than settling. He does make contact — 16.7% strikeouts and a 9.2% swing-and-miss rate — but the walks are below average and the chase rate is running hot. The bat plays below the level the surface line implies. Sell. 0 HR / 2 R / 3 RBI / 0 SB / .220 AVG is a deep-league streaming-only drag — sell and cut bait.

VS His Norm

Barrel %4.3%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~1.6% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —

161 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %32.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —

161 / 50 BBE

Barrel %4.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm +2.7% ▲

161 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.288

lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —

210 / 160 PA

wOBA.308

lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —

210 / 200 PA

Strikeout %16.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —

210 / 60 PA

Walk %6.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —

210 / 120 PA

BABIP.255

lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm +.008 ▲BABIP is above his ~.247 norm — expect it to fall.

161 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —

210 / 50 PA

Chase %33.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —

210 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 4.3%→2.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.3% (signal) tempered to career ~1.6% → projected 2.8%.

BABIP 0.255→0.281 regressednoise.220 AVG — BABIP 0.255 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.288 (xBA 0.235) → 0.281.

on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~34 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons