Is Brett Sullivan a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Brett Sullivan's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .281 with 87 mph exit velo; weak contact, no luck gap

237 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Brett Sullivan

COL·C

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.281 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.62

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Sullivan is a sell — the contact says this is who he is

The bat isn't getting it done at the level a catcher's bat needs to: 86.9 mph average exit velocity, against a league average of 89.0, with enough batted balls that the reading holds. The hard-hit rate is 33.3% versus 40.0% league, and the barrel rate is 3.8% against 8.0% — under half. His expected wOBA of .281 sits 34 points below the .315 league average, and his actual wOBA of .285 tracks it almost exactly, so there's no gap to blame on bad bounces. The trend is going the wrong direction too: his expected wOBA has stepped down across the sample rather than up. What contact he does make is empty — he doesn't strike out (16.9%, well below league), but a 5.5% walk rate gives him a thin on-base floor. There is no luck story here to wait out. Sell. The ROS line reads 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG — streaming-only, and the drop is the move.

VS His Norm

Barrel %3.8%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~1.6% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.281 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.9 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —

183 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —

183 / 50 BBE

Barrel %3.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm +2.2% ▲

183 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.281

lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —

237 / 160 PA

wOBA.285

lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —

237 / 200 PA

Strikeout %16.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —

237 / 60 PA

Walk %5.5%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

237 / 120 PA

BABIP.241

lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm −.006 ▼BABIP is below his ~.247 norm — expect it to rise.

183 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

237 / 50 PA

Chase %33.3%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —

237 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 3.8%→2.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.8% (signal) tempered to career ~1.6% → projected 2.7%.

BABIP 0.241→0.277 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.241 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.288 (xBA 0.235) → 0.277.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons