133 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brett Sullivan
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.268); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .210R 7RBI 15SB 0
Sullivan is a hold — league-average bat with no edge.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .195 YTD → .210 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.9%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~1.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.268)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.6%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.268
lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
133 / 160 PA
wOBA.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
133 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
133 / 60 PA
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
133 / 120 PA
BABIP.237
lg avg .295 ▼−.058vs his norm −.010 ▼BABIP is below his ~.247 norm — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
133 / 50 PA
Chase %33.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
133 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.9%→2.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 2.9% (signal) tempered to career ~1.6% → projected 2.0%.
BABIP 0.237→0.268 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.237 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.272 (xBA 0.223) → 0.268.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~147 projected PA.
slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~147 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~147 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.