MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Andrew Sears

DET·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.339 elevated and unstable, the 7.11 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.45 is +0.35 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Sears is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is below league.

His 7.11 ERA is not what it looks like, but it is not hiding a gem either. The damage runs through his BABIP-against of .339, 44 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 65, so that gap is luck, not a verdict on his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.45 — .35 above the league average of 4.10. That is a below-average pitcher, not a buy. He strikes out 16.3% of batters, well short of the 22% league mark, so the swing-and-miss isn't there to lift the profile. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Hold. Deep-league hold only: 0 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP keeps him a stash, not a streamer — no move needed.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.339 elevated and unstable — the 7.11 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.45 is +0.35 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
65 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
believable since Sep 266.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
65 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 200 TBF
xERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 200 TBF
ERA7.11
7.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
92 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.339
.339*
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
65 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
92 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
92 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
364 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.3%→17.8%signal0 K — K% 16.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 17.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.45noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.45 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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