MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kevin Ginkel
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Kevin Ginkel

AZ·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.55, 0.55 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.77
ROSK 0ERA 3.55WHIP 1.18W 0–0SV 0

Ginkel is a buy — the strikeout numbers back up the expected ERA

His expected ERA is 3.55, more than half a run better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying numbers hold it up. He strikes out 26.2% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his walk rate of 6.2% is well below the 8.0% league mark. His chase rate of 36.1% sits far above league, and his swinging-strike rate of 14.8% does too — hitters are swinging at pitches they cannot reach and missing them. His fastball is averaging 95.7 mph, above the 94.0 league average, and the velocity has climbed across the sample while his expected ERA has come down. Nothing here is being held up by luck. This is a pitcher whose stuff is showing up in the results. Buy. A 3.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP make him a deep-league asset worth adding now, even with 0 SV.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.2%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.2%—0.0%vs his ~26.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.55, 0.55 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
39.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
185 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.2%
believable since Jun 49.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
185 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —
275 / 200 TBF
xERA3.55
3.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.55vs his norm —
275 / 200 TBF
ERA4.12
4.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
67.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
norm26.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm 0.0%
275 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
norm6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
275 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
185 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.8%
14.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
275 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.1%
36.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —
275 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
95.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
1099 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→26.2%signal0 K — K% 26.2% (signal) held to career ~26.2% → projected 26.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.55signal3.55 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.55 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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