week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Kevin Ginkel
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.48); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0
Ginkel is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 28 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.5%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~26.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.48)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
100 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
151 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
151 / 200 TBF
ERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
151 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −1.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.8% norm — expect it to rise.
151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
100 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
606 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→26.3%signal25 K — K% 26.5% (signal) tempered to career ~26.2% → projected 26.3% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.48noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.48 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.