week 14
this weekHOLD
last week—
Cole Wilcox
data as of July 1, 2026·week 14
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (7.51); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 30ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Wilcox is a hold — limited data, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (7.51)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
41 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
41 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.408
lg avg .315 ▲+.093vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 200 TBF
xERA7.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
13.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
70 / 70 TBF
Walk %17.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+9.1%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.400
lg avg .295 ▲+.105vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
41 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
70 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
70 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
270 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→21.9%signal30 K — K% 21.4% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.9% over ~26 remaining IP.
xERA 7.51noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 17.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 17% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.81 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.