week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Angel Chivilli
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.03); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Chivilli is a hold — average results, but the raw stuff is loud.
ROS projects K 4 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.9%—+4.3% ▲vs his ~17.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.03)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 TBF
ERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
16.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +4.3% ▲
73 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.4% norm — expect it to fall.
73 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.222
lg avg .295 ▼−.073vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
73 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
73 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
285 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.9%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 21.9% (signal) tempered to career ~17.6% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.03 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.